Every major democratic trust collapse follows a recognizable pattern. We are 8-12 years into a cycle that historically runs 20-25 years — and the historical record distinguishes renewal from authoritarian consolidation.
Political scientists have moved from invoking Weimar Germany as a rhetorical warning to formalizing it as an analytical framework for measuring democratic legitimacy collapse. The distance between metaphor and model is the distance between alarm and diagnosis.
The 1970s stagflation analogy is everywhere in economic commentary. Most applications of it are wrong in important ways — a careful structural reading produces a more useful forecast.
Historians and commentators keep reaching for 1930s Germany to explain the present. The analogy is partly useful and partly a way of avoiding the specific analysis the present requires.
Thirty years after its end, the Cold War's lessons have been largely misread. The errors have consequences for how we think about the new competition with China.
We predicted the internet would bring democracy, abundance, and connection. It brought all three and also their opposites. Understanding what we got wrong helps explain what comes next.
Every episode of rising prices invites comparison to the 1970s. Understanding what actually happened then — and why — is more complicated than the political memory admits.
Marcus Webb··13 min
The Auguro Daily
The signals worth watching today
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