Fertility rates in OECD countries have declined below replacement in ways that natalist policy has consistently failed to reverse — the mechanism is a structural shift in educated women's aspirational models.
The 1970s stagflation analogy is everywhere in economic commentary. Most applications of it are wrong in important ways — a careful structural reading produces a more useful forecast.
Supply chain disruptions, geopolitical fragmentation, and industrial policy have reversed decades of globalization. Understanding what is actually changing — and what isn't — requires looking past the political rhetoric.
Prediction markets are pricing a 40 percent chance of significant labor displacement by 2028. The economists who study this most carefully are more divided than either camp admits.
Every episode of rising prices invites comparison to the 1970s. Understanding what actually happened then — and why — is more complicated than the political memory admits.