population — The Auguro

South Korea's Fertility Rate Has Ticked Up — The Demographic Damage Is Already Structural

South Korea's total fertility rate of 0.74 in 2023 — the lowest ever recorded for a sovereign state — has shown a tentative uptick. The recovery, if sustained, will not prevent the demographic trajectory already locked in. The signal is in what an extreme case reveals about the mechanisms affecting all OECD societies.

Leila FarahaniMarch 18, 20268 min read

Family

The Fertility Collapse Is Structural, Not Cyclical

Fertility rates in OECD countries have declined below replacement in ways that natalist policy has consistently failed to reverse — the mechanism is a structural shift in educated women's aspirational models.

Catherine OloweMarch 18, 20268 min read